How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?

In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists using micro data from the euro area Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of evaluation measures which take account of the entire predictive densities, and not just the probability assigned to the outcome that occurs. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in the performance of the surveyed densities at the individual level. However, it is hard to exploit this heterogeneity and improve aggregate performance by trimming poorly performing forecasters in real time. Relative to a set of simple benchmarks, density performance is somewhat better for GDP growth than for inflation, although in the former case it diminishes substantially with the forecast horizon. In addition, we report evidence of an improvement in the relative performance of expert densities during the recent period of macroeconomic volatility. However, our analysis also reveals clear evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in expert probability assessments, as reflected in frequent occurrences of events which are assigned a zero probability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

甘肃河西绿洲灌区农田水分动态变化的模拟研究

根据农田土壤水量平衡原理，对甘肃河西绿洲灌区农田水分变化进行动态模拟和分析，模拟结果精度高。由水分指数评价土壤含水量的实际状况，确定了灌水的具体日期，为控制土壤水分，提高水分生产率，实现节水与高效提供了科学依据。表3，参9。     

基于自适应神经网络的边坡位移预测

通过对边坡位移历史数据序列进行特征分析 ,计算出饱和嵌入维数和最大 Lyapunov指数 ,给出了边坡位移的最大可预报时间尺度。在此基础上 ,确定了神经网络的输入节点数 ,建立了基于自适应神经网络的边坡位移预报方法 .通过对三峡升船机高边坡和新滩滑坡实际位移数据进行预测 ,结果令人满意 .这对于建立边坡位移的实时监测 -预警系统有重要意义.     

不同信息源条件下的目标初始位置分布预测

为使目标的初始位置分布假设更为合理，根据海上搜索编队所携带探测器材的特点，分析了搜索编队执行搜索任务时可能获得的多种信息源，并将之划分为精确信息源、模糊信息源和推测信息源3类，分别阐述了搜索编队在获得3种不同信息源情况下目标初始位置分布的预测方法．通过实例仿真，给出了海上搜索编队在获得不同信息源情况下的后续搜索行动建议，该方法可作为对海上搜索编队的搜索战法研究的参考．     

可持续发展的食品体系及绿色消费体系构建研究

构建可持续发展的区域食品体系,是促进我国可持续发展的现实选择。它不仅能促进区域经济繁荣和区域自然资源的保持,缩短食品流通距离,降低流通成本,而且还可以创造更多的就业机会来提高农民的收益。建立可持续发展的区域食品体系,关键在于持续生产模式、健康消费模式和食品安全保证体系及绿色销售渠道的构建。     

GLC并联电路暂态过程衰减系数的能耗分析

分析了GLC并联电路欠阻尼振荡衰减系数的实验测量值与理论值偏差的原因,以振荡衰减的实验波为基础,测算出电路电容和电感上的损耗电导。对衰减系数的理论值进行修正,可使衰减系数理论修正值与实验测量值基本一致。     

农业科研系列晋职初审程序电子化方案设计(1)—晋职预报

以职称晋升为例,尝试通过Excel平台对农业科研系列晋职初审程序进行设计,利用代码、函数等通过数据链接等方法实现农业科研系列晋职初审程序的自动化,探索晋职审核的电子化途径,以简化工作程序,增强工作主动性和前瞻性,提高管理效率和水平.     

上海青浦工业园区热电有限公司变频改造浅析

阐述了上海青浦工业园区热电有限公司变频调速技术的特点和发电厂耗能情况,介绍了变频调节的基本原理及节能情况.     

中央空调系统节能技术分析

近年来随着我国建筑业的发展,中央空调系统的应用日益普及。由于中央空调系统的耗能量很大,所以如何节约能源、提高效率就成为迫切需要解决的问题。本文从中央空调系统的设计、设备选配、系统调节控制及运行管理等方面提出了若干切实可行的节能措施。     

Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters

This paper investigates whether some forecasters consistently outperform others using Japanese CPI forecast data of 42 forecasters over the past 18 quarters. It finds that the accuracy rankings of 0, 1, 2, and 5‐month forecasts are significantly different from those that might be expected when all forecasters had equal forecasting ability. Moreover, their rankings of the relative forecast levels are also significantly different from a random one. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.